Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer, declared that the Bitcoin bull market has already begun, setting a price target of $126,000. In his May 12 essay titled “The Butterfly Touch,” Hayes framed the move as a macro liquidity trade rather than a narrow crypto story. He pointed to February 28 as the starting point, linking it to US military action in Iran.
Hayes argues that three overlapping forces are pushing governments and banks in the US and China toward looser credit: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a shift away from just-in-time supply chains. He contends that AI infrastructure spending has become a national-security priority, making monetary restraint politically difficult in both Washington and Beijing.
“The bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,” Hayes wrote, tying Bitcoin’s recent outperformance to what he views as a new political regime for money creation. He sees a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity as the primary driver, rather than any digital-asset-specific catalyst.
The implication is that Bitcoin’s trajectory now hinges on global fiscal policy rather than crypto-native developments. If Hayes is correct, investors should watch central bank actions and geopolitical events — not just on-chain metrics — for the next major price moves. The target implies a roughly 80% gain from current levels.
Critical voices note that Hayes has a history of bold predictions that do not always materialize on schedule. His thesis depends on a continuous escalation of fiat liquidity, which could be disrupted if inflation forces a policy reversal.